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Modelling the Impact of Monoclonal Antibodies and Vaccines on the Reduction of Antimicrobial Resistance, ID: IMI2-2020-23-02
Antibiotics have greatly improved the health and life expectancy of human beings, but antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is rising, and deaths due to infections have been predicted to exceed the ones caused by cancer by 2050. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the United States have recently listed the priority human pathogens with threatening drug-resistance patterns. New generation antibiotics, vaccines and antibody-based biologics can all contribute to the response to the global challenge of antimicrobial resistant pathogens.

The goal of the project is to develop a framework for setting up antimicrobial resistance (AMR)-focused economic evaluations of vaccines and mAbs. The challenges include a measurement of the present rate of growth of AMR, its main drivers, its health and economic consequences, and which vaccines and mAbs might have the best chance of reducing the rate of AMR growth and the related health and economic consequences. The model will build upon the work done by previous models in depicting the infection dynamics of key pathogens in specific populations that lead to antibiotic consumption and AMR, and will simulate the impact of mAb and vaccination strategies on the chain of events. In a systematic review on AMR mathematical models, Birkegård et al, found that few selected studies fulfilled the TRACE modelling practice guidelines. The recommendations of the authors for future mathematical models on AMR included: "a) model the biological processes mechanistically, b) incorporate uncertainty and variability in the system using stochastic modelling, c) include a sensitivity analysis and model external and internal validation".

The project has the following objectives:
o Evaluate the burden of disease of AMR by estimating inpatients' (acute care hospitals and long-term care facilities) and outpatients' infection rates in at least 8 EU countries for which suitable data is collected and available, as well as in the US28, and the relative attributable risk for morbidity, mortality and costs.
o Build a comprehensive AMR model (i.e. model structure, parameters, assumptions) based on an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of existing models, and a gap analysis.
o Collecting, gathering, and analysing data from existing databases to feed the model.
o Develop and test a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to estimate the cost and benefits of covering defined target groups (e.g. 18+, 60+, surgeries) with mAbs and vaccines.
o Set up a study to test, monitor, evaluate and improve the model.
o Ensure a public and broad access to the model. The model and studies should not target specific bacteria, but should apply as a general tool adaptable to various bacteria

The call has 2 stages.

Further information: